Why the Conservatives won't be getting my vote

It's not just Poilievre

Canadians are going to the polls at some point this year and we will have to make a choice. A choice that will have huge consequences moving forward.

About mid last year, I wrote a long frustrated Facebook post about the Liberals vs the Conservatives and whether Poilievre was going to get my vote. I was at that point undecided but I am no longer. Pierre Poilievre will not get my vote. Let me outline why.

First, we are facing levels of US aggression that haven't been seen since colonial times. The challenge before Canada is to stand up on the world stage and lead like the mature nation we should be¹. This means standing up to Trump and uniting Canadians. It also means it is put up or shut up time for Poilievre. For 3 months after Trump's election, Pierre failed to adjust his message, change course on his "burn it all down" rhetoric, or seek to act like a parliamentarian. In fact, he has used some MAGA dog-whistles in his latest interviews and announcements - deportation, gender, no more foreign aid. Poilievre has failed to put up a coherent policy document, failed to start leading as anything other than an opposer, and failed to showcase any type of team. We're less than 9 months from an election. Put up or shut up. It is well past time.

Poilievre is much like George W. Bush, he was only ever going to be as good as the people he surrounded himself with and the circumstances he had to meet. A Poilievre-Harris matchup may have been fine, but that is not where we are. We are in a world where Poilievre's worst angels will face constant appeals. There have always been several canaries in the coal mine: Jamil Jivani, Jenni Byrne, the Danube Institute.

- I have been worried about Jamil Jivani's profile within the party since he won his by-election. If his profile remained low, then I wouldn't be worried. Why? Because Jivani is cut from the same cloth as JD Vance - listen to his creepy speech accepting his by-election win to see what I mean. Jivani employs MAGA dog whistles, twisted rhetoric, and alternative facts in a sublimely smooth fashion to build a convincing argument. He is supremely self-interested and he is learning his lessons from the states. His ascendancy in the party is a huge cause for worry.

- Jenni Byrne. The woman is full on MAGA, she's Poilievre's #2, and she wields more influence than I am comfortable accepting. 'Nuf said.

- The Danube Institute. About 2 years ago, the Danube Institute invited a group of Conservative MP's (under Poilievre) to its London location. (They have also been involved in the Jordan Peterson conservative conference thing.) For those who don't know, the Danube Institute is based in Viktor Orbán's Hungary. It is basically a pseudo-policy institute that works to spread authoritarianism (fascism) around the world and destroy liberal democracy. It is the parent of the current iteration of the Heritage Foundation and helped them develop project 2025. Harper has been on the record as praising Orbán and encouraging more collaboration with Hungary (when it was clear the man was a dictator) and the independent right leaning media frequently pumps Hungarian policies. The linkages are too solid to ignore.

- I have been worried about the Conservative overtures towards Elon Musk. I've said before that your dance partner matters and Musk is one man we should run away from.

Finally. I have been dismayed at Poilievre's hesitance to stand up for Canada. He wants to govern this country for duck's sake! Grow a pair and stand up to a bully. And don't wait 3 months to do so. His inability to realize that the central election question has changed speaks to a certain rigidity of the man. He has yammered about the carbon tax while Canadians have been horrified and jittery about Trump 2.0. The times we are in are going to require agile leaders with the intelligence and grit to respond to the unexpected. I have not seen that from Pierre. Surprisingly, the federal politicians I have seen this from are Charlie Angus and Chrystia Freeland.

As always, your vote is your business but I am begging you to be deliberately shrewd in who you choose. We have to consider that we may well be electing a wartime PM. I don't say this lightly. The US is racing through the steps of early 1930's fascist Germany and dragging the world with it. I am looking for a candidate that has Churchillian levels of clarity on global developments and the intelligence to meet the moment.

1. I feel like a Yoda quote here: There is no try, only do, and do not. No try!